Modeled miss probability × the out-of-pocket amount you supplied.
FLYPOLICY INSTRUMENT03 / 09
Connection Risk Lab
Model the miss—and the recovery after it.
NO ACCOUNT REQUIREDPRIVATE BY DESIGNEXPLAINABLE SCORE
Scheduled time is not usable time. Combine delay uncertainty, airport processes, ticket protection, minimum connection time and recovery cost in one shareable decision record.
CONNECTION RISK74FRAGILE
FRA / 95 MIN SCHEDULED
26% modeled catch probability.
The expected path is 18 minutes longer than the scheduled connection.
ARRIVALMIDPOINTGATE CLOSE
Door open7m
Transfer walk18m
Border process28m
Terminal change16m
Gate buffer20m
PROCESS LOAD89m
80% MODEL BUFFER150m
RECOVERY DEPTH3 LATER
TICKET PROTECTIONTHROUGH
Find the exact carrier/airport minimum and enter it above; FlyPolicy does not invent it.
Through-ticket protection selected; verify the operating carrier’s rebooking path.
The connection is protected as one ticket, but protection does not make the transfer comfortable. Look for a later backup departure.
USER-SUPPLIED schedule, delay, processes, backup count, cost and ticket structure
PROFILED airport walk and variability only when you apply a named profile
NOT LIVE gates, queues, weather, operational status, seat availability and rebooking inventory
OFFICIAL ONLY IF YOU ENTER IT minimum connection time
HOW TO READ THE PROBABILITY
The estimate treats your likely delay as the center of a distribution and “delay uncertainty” as its spread. It is a scenario model, not live flight tracking or an official airport minimum connection time.
HOW THE ENGINE THINKS
A timeline, not a magic score.
- A
Consume the schedule
Expected arrival delay and the selected airport processes are subtracted from the published layover.
- B
Expose the surviving buffer
The output shows minutes that remain before a practical gate-close allowance.
- C
Price protection separately
A through ticket may offer rebooking protection; a separate ticket usually shifts the exposure to the traveler.
Start from a real question.
Explore the Answer Lab ↗FRA / 075
Is 75 minutes enough for a Frankfurt connection?
Fragile when border processing and a concourse change both apply.
41% MODELED CATCH PROBABILITYOpen scenario ↗IST / 060Is a 60-minute Istanbul connection defensible?
Only plausible when the bag is through-checked and no border process is added.
36% MODELED CATCH PROBABILITYOpen scenario ↗JFK → EWRHow risky is a JFK to Newark flight connection?
High-friction unless the layover is deliberately long or overnight.
5H+ DEFENSIBLE MODELED BUFFEROpen scenario ↗FlyPolicy is a decision aid, not a travel agency, airline or legal adviser. Prices and conditions can change before purchase. Verify the final fare and operating carrier on the seller's checkout page.