FLYPOLICY INSTRUMENT03 / 06

Connection simulator

Model disruption before it occurs.

NO ACCOUNT REQUIREDPRIVATE BY DESIGNEXPLAINABLE SCORE

Scheduled connection time is not usable connection time. Account for delay and airport processes to reveal the buffer that actually remains.

CONNECTION RISK74FRAGILE
FRA / 95 MIN SCHEDULED

26% modeled catch probability.

The expected path is 18 minutes longer than the scheduled connection.

ARRIVALMIDPOINTGATE CLOSE
Door open7m
Transfer walk18m
Border process28m
Terminal change16m
Gate buffer20m
PROCESS LOAD89m
80% MODEL BUFFER150m
RECOVERY DEPTH3 LATER
TICKET PROTECTIONTHROUGH

The connection is protected as one ticket, but protection does not make the transfer comfortable. Look for a later backup departure.

HOW TO READ THE PROBABILITY

The estimate treats your likely delay as the center of a distribution and “delay uncertainty” as its spread. It is a scenario model, not live flight tracking or an official airport minimum connection time.

HOW THE ENGINE THINKS

A timeline, not a magic score.

  1. A

    Consume the schedule

    Expected arrival delay and the selected airport processes are subtracted from the published layover.

  2. B

    Expose the surviving buffer

    The output shows minutes that remain before a practical gate-close allowance.

  3. C

    Price protection separately

    A through ticket may offer rebooking protection; a separate ticket usually shifts the exposure to the traveler.

READ THIS SCORE CORRECTLY

FlyPolicy is a decision aid, not a travel agency, airline or legal adviser. Prices and conditions can change before purchase. Verify the final fare and operating carrier on the seller's checkout page.